The United States prolonged its “official condolences” on Monday for the loss of life of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and different officers in a helicopter crash, in line with an announcement from the State Department. “As Iran selects a new president, we reaffirm our support for the Iranian people and their struggle for human rights and fundamental freedoms,” mentioned division spokesman Matthew Miller, nonetheless, president Joe Biden didn’t remark or condoled the loss of life of Raisi
Impact on Iran’s political panorama
President Raisi’s loss of life is unlikely to end in rapid adjustments to Iran’s ruling system or its insurance policies, that are managed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, Raisi was thought-about a major candidate to succeed the 85-year-old supreme chief, making his loss of life important for the longer term management dynamics in Iran. This growth might enhance the probability of Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, changing into the subsequent supreme chief, doubtlessly resulting in a disaster of legitimacy within the Islamic Republic, which was established as an alternative choice to monarchy.
Current political construction in Iran
Iran operates beneath a system the place the president and parliament are elected, however the supreme chief holds final authority over main insurance policies, the armed forces, and the highly effective Revolutionary Guard. The supreme chief additionally appoints half of the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for numerous elections, together with the Assembly of Experts, the physique accountable for selecting the subsequent supreme chief.
Ebrahim Raisi, often called a hard-liner and a protege of Khamenei, was elected president in 2021 amid low voter turnout after the Guardian Council barred different outstanding candidates. Following his loss of life, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, a comparatively unknown determine, grew to become caretaker president, with new elections required inside 50 days. These elections are anticipated to take care of the established order in Iran’s political panorama.
Implications for supreme chief succession
While presidents come and go, important adjustments in Iran’s insurance policies or governance are anticipated solely with the choice of a brand new supreme chief. The subsequent supreme chief will probably be chosen by the Assembly of Experts, elected each eight years. Analysts imagine the primary contenders have been Raisi and Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba. Raisi’s loss of life now locations Mojtaba in a doubtlessly stronger place to succeed his father.
Potential reactions to Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession
The chance of the supreme chief’s son succeeding him might provoke backlash inside Iran. Critics could view this as a transfer towards a hereditary monarchy, opposite to the ideas of the Islamic Republic. Such a transition might spark anger amongst Iranians already disillusioned with clerical rule, in addition to amongst regime supporters who would possibly see it as un-Islamic.
Iran’s economic system continues to endure from Western sanctions linked to its nuclear program, and strict enforcement of Islamic rule, notably beneath Raisi, has alienated many, together with girls and younger individuals. Recent years have seen important protests, notably after the loss of life of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which led to a violent crackdown. Raisi’s loss of life might complicate the succession course of and doubtlessly set off additional unrest in Iran.
(With businesses inputs)
Also learn | Mahsa Amini: How Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi braved large burqa protests regardless of mass furore
Source: www.indiatvnews.com
