A serious survey of over 18,000 individuals on Wednesday predicted a wipeout for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak-led governing Conservative Party, with the Opposition Labour Party forecast to win 403 seats – comfortably away from the 326 required for a majority.
The new multi-level modelling and post-stratification (MRP) figures launched by YouGov observe an analogous mega ballot over the weekend predicting a defeat for the Tories, with a acquire of 201 for Keir Starmer-led Labour and Sunak-led Tories set to crash to only 155 seats – a lack of 210.
The findings point out a worse defeat for the Tories than beneath former Tory prime minister John Major in 1997 when the Tony Blair-led Labour left them with simply 165 MPs.
“These latest results push Keir Starmer closer toward repeating a Blair-level result for Labour, a full 27 years since Labour’s longest-serving prime minister first took office. In that election, Blair won 418 out of the available 659 House of Commons seats,” reads the YouGov evaluation.
“By contrast, Rishi Sunak is now heading for a worse result than John Major’s 1997 total of 165 seats. The coming tidal wave projected by this model would sweep away several major Conservative figures,” it stated.
The most outstanding members of Parliament who may lose their House of Commons seat embrace Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, science minister Michelle Donelan and levelling up minister Michael Gove. Other senior Tories within the precarious zone with the voters embrace Commons chief Penny Mordaunt and former minister Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The Liberal Democrats are up by one seat based mostly on an earlier YouGov mannequin, to 49, on the trail to a “significant parliamentary comeback” with none important adjustments to their nationwide vote share. In Scotland, YouGov now tasks Labour to comfortably be the biggest occasion.
The headline outcomes based mostly on this MRP mannequin can be Labour at 41 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives at 24 per cent, the Liberal Democrats at 12 per cent, the Greens at 7 per cent, far-right Reform UK at 12 per cent, and others at 1 per cent.
YouGov stated it interviewed 18,761 British adults from March 7-27, marking the most recent survey to foretell a 1997-style final result for the Conservatives when the nation goes to the polls, which Sunak has indicated will likely be held within the second half of the 12 months.
“Constituency-level projections were estimated using the same statistical method which correctly predicted the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections – multi-level modelling and post-stratification (MRP),” it stated.
The repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in 2022 restored the power of British prime ministers to set election dates. However, by legislation a common election has to happen a minimum of each 5 years, making January 2025 the outermost deadline for Sunak to go to the poll field.
Source: www.indiatoday.in
