India’s benchmark inflation quantity, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained flat between January and February. The headline retail inflation quantity got here in at 5.09% in February in comparison with the 5.1% print for January 2024. The January and February CPI prints, when learn with the current discount of ₹100 in LPG cylinder costs — this may present up within the March inflation numbers — imply that CPI can be near the RBI’s forecast of 5% for the quarter ending March 2024. The February inflation quantity can be in keeping with analyst forecasts. A Bloomberg ballot of economists had projected this quantity to be 5.05%.
The general CPI quantity continues to be above RBI’s goal of 4%(Bloomberg)
Read right here: Retail inflation nearly unchanged at 5.09% in Feb towards 5.1% in Jan: Govt knowledge
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While the general CPI quantity continues to be above RBI’s goal of 4%, core inflation, which measures the non-food and non-fuel a part of the CPI basket, fell to three.37%, based on the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) database. This is the bottom core inflation degree since November 2019 and means that the Indian financial system is way from overheated in the intervening time.
To ensure, meals inflation elevated marginally from 8.3% in January to eight.6% in February . This is basically a mirrored image of a pointy soar within the costs of eggs, fish and meat — the class noticed a rise in inflation from 1.6% in January to five.7% in February. To ensure, meals inflation elevated marginally from 8.3% in January to eight.7% in February . This is basically a mirrored image of a pointy soar within the costs of eggs, fish and meat — the class noticed a rise in inflation from 1.6% in January to five.7% in February. Vegetable inflation additionally elevated from 27.1percentin January to 30.3% in February
While inflation for cereals and pulses has come down marginally from January ranges, the longer term inflation outlook for these things will rely on the harvest of the winter crop. There are anecdotal reviews that western disturbance pushed rains in elements of north and north-west India may need led to some crop harm.
In one other set of indicators launched by the National Statistical Office (NSO), the Index of Industrial Production for the month of January got here in barely decrease than analyst projections. At 3.8%, IIP progress in January was 30 foundation factors – one foundation level is one hundredth of a proportion level – decrease than a Bloomberg forecast and likewise decrease than the 4.25% print for the month of December 2023. Manufacturing, which has a weight of greater than three-fourth within the IIP basket, grew at 3.2% in January in comparison with 4.5% in December 2023. While the most recent IIP numbers are in keeping with expectations of progress dropping some momentum within the quarter ending March , warning ought to be noticed in studying it as an indication of a giant fall in financial momentum within the manufacturing sector. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) manufacturing, one other high-frequency indicator used extensively by analysts, reveals that manufacturing truly gained financial momentum in January and February in comparison with December 2023 ranges and remained within the enlargement zone.
Read right here: Is India overestimating meals inflation?
“CPI inflation was stable at 5.1% in February. Food inflation rose moderately, but was offset by continued slowing in core and fuel inflation. We expect the RBI to begin policy easing from Q3 24, as it awaits further signs from food prices, drawing comfort from benign core inflation and robust growth,” Rahul Bajoria, MD and head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays stated.
Source: www.hindustantimes.com
